Went 2-1 yesterday, which is nice, but not nice enough. Let's try and go a perfect 3-for-3 today, and let's get the ball rolling in Philadelphia to start.
Play 1: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers -- Phillies over 4.5 runs (-120) DraftKings
Dodgers starter Landon Knack is due for a heavy dose of regression.
The rookie has a 2.86 ERA -- and a 4.29 xFIP. Obviously, Knack is getting lucky, and it's clear where that's happening: A .200 BABIP.
That is wholly unsustainable, as his Statcast numbers show, specifically a 48.5% hard hit rate to go along with a 11.8% barrel rate.
In short: Knack is going to get knocked at some point, and tonight in Philadelphia seems as likely a time as any.
For one: The weather, which will feature gametime temperatures in the high 80s with the wind blowing out to right.
That plays directly into the hands (and bats) of Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, who's expected back after a day off due to a bruised hand. From there, things don't get much easier. Trea Turner is sandwiched between them, and Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott follow.
All these players have ISOs of at least .159 against righties over the last two years, to go with wOBAs over .342.
As for the bottom of the order? Doesn't get easier. Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, and rookie catcher Rafael Marchan, all with ISOs over .208 and wOBAs over .359.
M. Night Shyamalan has often shot his movies in and around Philadelphia, and so here's an idea for him: A pitcher from Los Angeles comes east and is eaten by the regression monster. Needs work, but that's the general idea heading into tonight's game.
Play 2: Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland A's -- Red Sox -1.5 runs (-110) FanDuel
This one feels almost too easy.
The Red Sox are sending Tanner Houck to the mound, and he is blooming this year. A 2.68 ERA is teamed with a 3.12 ERA, showing Houck isn't getting lucky, and is indeed turning into an ace.
He's getting more ground balls than ever at 55%, and his barrel rate is a tiny 5.7%.
And while the A's have proved pesky all season, they just don't match up well with Houck. To be fair, most teams aren't matching up too well with Houck, with his .073 ISO and .256 wOBA against.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox offense looks set to tee off against Luis Medina and his 16% K rate and 11% walk rate. Medina has been a little lucky so far this year, as evidenced by his xFIP of 5.47 being more than a run higher than his 4.37 ERA.
The weather also will help Boston's bats tonight -- hot and humid -- but the main bats probably don't need all that much help to begin with, as eight of the nine projected starters have ISOs over .181 against Medina's main pitch, the four-seam fastball.
This one is almost too obvious. The Red Sox should cruise.
Play 3: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays -- Rays moneyline (+104) FanDuel
The Yankees have been scuffling of late, going 8-17 in their last 25. Tonight, they're home and going up against Shane Baz, the highly touted pitcher who lost over a year to injury.
But in his first start back in the Majors since 2022, he went six innings against the Texas Rangers, striking out six. He did give up seven hits and three runs, but the Rays had to be thrilled.
Of course, any game against the Yankees with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto is not going to be easy, but if Baz can do what he did last week, he should be able to keep the Yankees bats in check.
On the other side, Nestor Cortes might have some pain with the Rays.
The lefty runs into some trouble against righties -- over the course of the last two years, a .189 ISO and .324 wOBA against -- and the Rays should be sending nine righties to the plate.
Furthermore, seven of them have ISOs north of .185 against four-seamers, Cortes' main pitch, including Randy Arozarena at a whopping .386.
But wait there's more: The expected lineup has a 12.5% walk rate against lefties.
Add it all up, and the Rays seem primed to put some runs on the board. I trust their bats and Baz more than the slumping Yankees offense and Cortes.
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Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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